Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Cloudy with a chance of less qualified homebuyers? Naahhhhhhh!

Product Update
ATR (Ability to Repay)/QM (Qualified Mortgages) and the Impacts on Home Buyers

January 10th signified additional revisions to the home loan financing industry and has created high anxiety and unanswered questions as to how it will affect home buyers ability to obtain financing.  After sitting through multiple webinars, conference calls and seminars regarding this topic, I feel comfortable enough to present to you the reader’s digest version of the changes that have everyone freaking out!:
To start,  a brief definition and its origin:  ATR/QM represents a chapter in the Dodd-Frank Act, that 900 page bill that has multiple phases to it, this being the latest phase to the bill.  Essentially the lender is required to make a reasonable and good faith determination of the consumers’ ability to repay the loan according to its terms…This brings us to yet another aspect of the bill that rolls out January 18th, Higher-Priced Mortgage Loan (“HPML”).  We’ll come back to that….
Here is what is eliminated:
·         Negative amortization (Shocker)

·         Interest Only (Say what??)

·         Balloon payments (Boooooo)

·         Anything over 30 yr amortization (You’re killin me smaaaalls!)

·         Debt-to-Income not to exceed 43% (Don’t sweat it, I will explain)

·         Total points and fees not to exceed 3% (Don’t sweat it, I will explain)
With regards to Debt-to-income ratio, this can exceed 43% if the automated underwriting system (AUS) issues an “approval” rating.  So, if DU (Fannie Mae’s AUS) or LP (Freddie Mac’s AUS) issues an approval and the DTI is 49.8%, First Cal will still approve the loan.  
With regards to “HPML”, this will not apply to investment property financing which is typically accompanied with points.  It DOES affect buyers who like to buy out the mortgage insurance and pay it upfront.  However, First Cal allows borrowers to finance the upfront mortgage insurance!
So, what does this all mean for your buyers?  It’s really “business as usual”.  Personally I haven’t originated a neg-am, interest-only, balloon or 40 yr mortgage, or a loan with a debt-to-income ratio over 50% on a CONVENTIONAL LOAN (remember FHA/VA doesn’t apply to QM), in years.  

Next week I will tell you why statistically speaking, few home buyers will be affected by FHA’s decision to lower loan amounts will have little impact on the market.   

Financial Markets 
The Dow Jones has steadily surged over 400 pts through the holidays and over the past 30 trading sessions with most of the gains coming before Christmas.  The market has bobbed along the past two weeks amidst mixed earnings reports. 

The bond market, which often trades inversely to stocks, bucked tradtional trading trends with investors acting bullish on bonds.  As always, I focus on the Fannie Mae 3.5 coupon which is most directly related to our buyers’ interest rates.  The Fannie Mae 3.5 coupon has improved roughly 100 basis points over the past month, which loosely translates into .25% in lower rate on a 30 yr fixed mortgage. 

 
Southern Nevada Real Estate Related Data
This past Tuesday, the GLVAR released fresh real estate data for 2013 and the article below is a great reference for buyers interested in understanding what the market has done.  Among the highlights, 62% of re sale homes were traditional sales….Roughly 2.8 months supply (8100 homes, townhomes and condos on the MLS as of December).   Generally speaking equilibrium occurs when there is roughly a 6 month supply of homes so the “seller” still holds the cards….

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